If you’ve been following our market reports, you’ve likely seen us use the term “Median Proxy.” It sounds like technical jargon, but if you’re looking to buy or sell on the water, understanding the difference between a “Proxy” and a “True Median” is very important.

The Math: Simple vs. Precise

In most real estate markets, the Median Price is the “middle” price of every home sold in a year. If 500 cottages sell, the true median is the price of the 250th cottage on that list.

However, in market analysis, a simplified alternative called the Median Proxy is often used – which is the median of monthly medians.

• The Proxy: We take the middle price of January, the middle of February, and so on, then find the middle of those 12 numbers.
• The Problem: In Muskoka, we have “Low Volume” months. If only three cottages sell in January and two of them are $10M estates, that month’s median is astronomical. In a Proxy calculation, that one weird month has the same “vote” as the busy month of July when 100 cottages sold.

Why This Matters for You

Muskoka is highly seasonal. A Median Proxy is a great “directional” tool – it tells us the general vibe of the market. But it isn’t “ground truth.”

If a seller is advised by a Proxy price that was accidentally inflated by a few outlier winter sales, they might overprice their property. Conversely, a buyer might think they’re overpaying because the “Proxy” doesn’t reflect the high-volume reality of the summer surge.

The Bottom Line: We use Proxies for our broad Muskoka market reports because they are quick and give us a trend line. But when it comes time to actually price your property or write an offer, we pivot to the True Median and Lake-Specific Data.

Interested in the “True Median” breakdown for your lake? Reach out to Catharine  – cath@cottageinmuskoka.ca.